Don’t peak? Sorry, the oil crunch is inevitable

Group aims to boost energy awareness

The Forest Grove News-Times, Jul 11, 2007, Updated Oct 30, 2009 (4 Reader comments)

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With gas prices rising again and global warming still in the headlines, a new Washington County group is looking at the issue of our dependence on crude oil.

Organizers of Washington County Peak Oil say they are motivated by the looming crisis caused by the peaking of world petroleum supplies and by a hopeful vision of future possibilities.

The group, which launched last week, aims to boost awareness about the global oil supply and its economic, environmental and social implications.

It also hopes to serve as a community network to identify and share strategies to effectively deal with an oil shortage and promote constructive and sustainable solutions in the county.

One of the founders, Peter Lunsford, explained the group’s goals in an e-mail exchange with the News-Times last week.

News-Times: What’s meant by peak oil?

Lunsford: “Peaking” means an oil-producing well, basin, or region (or the world) has reached the point where the maximum amount of oil is being pumped from it. From that point on it produces less and less, sometimes in a very rapid production decline.

Of all the environmental issues out there, why peak oil?

The single most critical issue confronting Washington County and the world, over the long term, is clearly global warming. The single most critical issue confronting Washington County and the world, in the short term, is energy depletion caused by the peaking of global petroleum supplies.

Why’s that?

Because of the impacts on transportation and the avalanche that will unleash on the global economy.

How urgent is this?

Experts are saying we’ve found pretty much all the meaningful oil fields in the world that we’re going to find and we’re already pumping at capacity,

We know that 64 of the world’s top oil-producing; countries have officially peaked and are now in decline. And we know that five of the six largest oil fields in the world have now peaked.

What effect does this have on the local level?

What will happen in Washington County if gasoline costs $10 per gallon within two years? The peaking of global petroleum supplies will directly impact transportation and transportation is what makes the economy function.

But won’t this be solved by supply and demand?

When demand for oil outstrips global supply, people, corporations and nations will start bidding wars (or worse) for the remaining supplies. Basic economic principles tell us that astronomical price increases are inevitable, and supply disruptions are probable.

What about alternative fuels?

There is nothing on the planet that can replace those liquid fuels in the quantities we are using today, or at a similar low cost. And natural gas is also predicted to reach its peak in a few short years as well. Half the electricity used in Washington County comes from natural gas, not to mention the number of homes that rely on it for heat and hot water.

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